A relative-value position can still lose substantially and encounter operational risk. This guide keeps the exchange, dated legs and historical-data boundary visible so the quoted relationship can be checked.
Relative does not mean safe
A calendar spread can widen sharply as nearby supply tightens or deferred demand changes. A butterfly can suffer when the middle delivery month moves differently from both wings. A Minneapolis–Kansas City pair adds regional, grade and venue differences. Historical average gains do not cap future losses, and a position that eventually wins can still have a large adverse interim path.
Measure the worst movement from entry during each historical window and distinguish it from end-to-end P&L. A margin call can occur before the planned exit; a backtest that records only the final date misses that funding risk.
Execution adds another layer
If legs cannot be entered as a supported multi-leg order, filling one before the others temporarily creates outright exposure. Bid-ask spreads and available depth can differ across months and venues. Exchange-implied spreads available for CME HRS and KC are not proof that the equivalent MIAX Minneapolis–KC combination can be executed in one order.
A 1:−2:1 butterfly has four gross contract units even though its quoted one-cent movement corresponds to $50. Check commission per leg, minimum tick, order routing and whether an option or a futures spread is actually being quoted.
Delivery and source risk
Physical-delivery contracts require attention to first notice and last-trade dates. A plan to hold beyond a broker cutoff can trigger forced liquidation or obligations that a price chart does not show. Also check whether a “current” price is truly current and belongs to the correct exchange.
Do not use the site’s historical MGE page as a present-day trade recommendation. Recent Minneapolis quotes and broker requirements must be verified separately before any executable analysis.
See the dated contracts behind the formula
Explore matched historical Minneapolis prices, individual years and the selected date window. The dataset has no verified current MGE spread.
Open MGE Historical Research →Primary sources
Exchange and USDA sources establish product definitions and context. Recheck the current rules and dates before using a contract.
Continue this series
Educational historical research, not investment advice. Futures and multi-leg spreads involve substantial loss, execution and delivery risk. Historical results do not guarantee future outcomes. Imported Minneapolis prices stop on 24 October 2025; current quotes and margin must be verified independently.